The term “Major Flooding” became all the talk last week when it was reported that Montevideo was expected to have an 80 percent chance of “Major Flooding” while Granite Falls was somehow very likely to fare much better, having just a seven percent chance of “Major Flooding”. That puzzled a lot of us. After all, the Minnesota River flows from there to here and the same water is certainly going to be flowing right on through here when the spring melt and runoff kicks into high gear in the next few weeks.
So, how do you make any sense of what seems to be conflicting information? Well, it’s all in how you define the kind of damage that is likely to happen at a given point, based on the characteristics at that point. According to Diane Cooper of the Chanhassen office of the National Weather Service (NWS), “ Major flooding” is defined as: Extensive inundation of structures and roads and significant evacuations of people and/or transfer of property to higher elevations.
The chance that the river will reach flood elevations that the Weather Service says would cause “Major Flooding” here in Granite Falls are only seven percent because the elevation of the remaining private property near the river and the overflow channel are higher than the level the river is likely to reach. In Granite, nearly all of the lower elevation homes and buildings near the river or overflow channel have either been removed or have been better protected over the past few years. That isn’t the case in Montevideo’s Smith’s Addition where there are still more than 20 homes and several businesses that are low enough to be impacted by a flood that in Granite will be regarded as “Moderate”.
So how do we get a feel for the kind of flood that is possible this spring in Granite Falls?
The National Weather Service’s forecast says that we have a 82 percent chance of matching the modestly high water we experienced last spring. When you plot the 2001 flood, the third highest recorded at Granite Falls, you see that there is just under a five percent chance of the river reaching that height.. Using other historic records you can see that the chance of this year’s flood being in the top five floods recorded here is around 40 percent. That gives us a bit more perspective on what to expect as we move through March and into April.
This doesn’t mean, of course, that we shouldn’t prepare for high water and keep a close eye on the river, especially if we get rain or warm weather. While we don’t want to fill any more sandbags than we need, we’ll be prepared to do whatever we have to when it comes to protecting people and their property.
The flood forecast issued by the NWS takes into account what are considered as normal or typical temperatures and precipitation as well as a look at long-term weather patterns. If we get more rain than normal or if it warms up suddenly and stays warm, the river level will be affected.
The Weather Service has ramped up their flood forecasting with updates and information like we have never seen before. They are taking full advantage of the internet and all the other social media devices. It is great to have updates on the various conditions that will affect the river’s flow. The emails are informative and the website information is amazing.
The flood mitigation progress we have made over the past few years will pay off this spring. While there is still more to do we’ve have taken some big strides forward and with more time and more money, we’ll continue to make some progress. Most of that money will come from the legislature’s bonding bill. Hopefully, the money for flood related improvements will pass through untouched.
A worthy goal for us is to not fill any sandbags when we get high water. That may not be totally possible but it is a good goal and we have to aim for it.
Downstream from us in Mankato and North Mankato nearly 40 years ago the towns were inundated with flood water. They crafted a plan and worked on it for years and now, as a result, the river which will be running with all the water that we, and others, send it will move through those towns while causing very little, if any, damage.
I don’t recall hearing anything about “Major Flooding” expected in Mankato and North Mankato. That’s because the Minnesota River has been contained in its channel with massive flood walls after several years of terrible flooding in the 1960s. The water level will be very high there but it will cause hardly any damage. That is a worthy goal.
East Grand Forks mayor Lynn Stauss told me that they didn’t fill any sandbags last year while, upstream in Moorhead and Fargo, millions of sandbags were used.
Avoiding all that work takes a lot of time, planning and money but we are well on our way and we will keep working toward the goal of reducing our need for manual labor and hundreds of volunteers. It will be a while before we’re there. Meanwhile, we’ll probably have some interesting days ahead of us again this spring.
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The term “Major Flooding” became all the talk last week when it was reported that Montevideo was expected to have an 80 percent chance of “Major Flooding” while Granite Falls was somehow very likely to fare much better, having just a seven percent chance of “Major Flooding”. That puzzled a lot of us. After all, the Minnesota River flows from there to here and the same water is certainly going to be flowing right on through here when the spring melt and runoff kicks into high gear in the next few weeks.
So, how do you make any sense of what seems to be conflicting information? Well, it’s all in how you define the kind of damage that is likely to happen at a given point, based on the characteristics at that point. According to Diane Cooper of the Chanhassen office of the National Weather Service (NWS), “ Major flooding” is defined as: Extensive inundation of structures and roads and significant evacuations of people and/or transfer of property to higher elevations.
The chance that the river will reach flood elevations that the Weather Service says would cause “Major Flooding” here in Granite Falls are only seven percent because the elevation of the remaining private property near the river and the overflow channel are higher than the level the river is likely to reach. In Granite, nearly all of the lower elevation homes and buildings near the river or overflow channel have either been removed or have been better protected over the past few years. That isn’t the case in Montevideo’s Smith’s Addition where there are still more than 20 homes and several businesses that are low enough to be impacted by a flood that in Granite will be regarded as “Moderate”.
So how do we get a feel for the kind of flood that is possible this spring in Granite Falls?
The National Weather Service’s forecast says that we have a 82 percent chance of matching the modestly high water we experienced last spring. When you plot the 2001 flood, the third highest recorded at Granite Falls, you see that there is just under a five percent chance of the river reaching that height.. Using other historic records you can see that the chance of this year’s flood being in the top five floods recorded here is around 40 percent. That gives us a bit more perspective on what to expect as we move through March and into April.
This doesn’t mean, of course, that we shouldn’t prepare for high water and keep a close eye on the river, especially if we get rain or warm weather. While we don’t want to fill any more sandbags than we need, we’ll be prepared to do whatever we have to when it comes to protecting people and their property.
The flood forecast issued by the NWS takes into account what are considered as normal or typical temperatures and precipitation as well as a look at long-term weather patterns. If we get more rain than normal or if it warms up suddenly and stays warm, the river level will be affected.
The Weather Service has ramped up their flood forecasting with updates and information like we have never seen before. They are taking full advantage of the internet and all the other social media devices. It is great to have updates on the various conditions that will affect the river’s flow. The emails are informative and the website information is amazing.
The flood mitigation progress we have made over the past few years will pay off this spring. While there is still more to do we’ve have taken some big strides forward and with more time and more money, we’ll continue to make some progress. Most of that money will come from the legislature’s bonding bill. Hopefully, the money for flood related improvements will pass through untouched.
A worthy goal for us is to not fill any sandbags when we get high water. That may not be totally possible but it is a good goal and we have to aim for it.
Downstream from us in Mankato and North Mankato nearly 40 years ago the towns were inundated with flood water. They crafted a plan and worked on it for years and now, as a result, the river which will be running with all the water that we, and others, send it will move through those towns while causing very little, if any, damage.
I don’t recall hearing anything about “Major Flooding” expected in Mankato and North Mankato. That’s because the Minnesota River has been contained in its channel with massive flood walls after several years of terrible flooding in the 1960s. The water level will be very high there but it will cause hardly any damage. That is a worthy goal.
East Grand Forks mayor Lynn Stauss told me that they didn’t fill any sandbags last year while, upstream in Moorhead and Fargo, millions of sandbags were used.
Avoiding all that work takes a lot of time, planning and money but we are well on our way and we will keep working toward the goal of reducing our need for manual labor and hundreds of volunteers. It will be a while before we’re there. Meanwhile, we’ll probably have some interesting days ahead of us again this spring.
* * * * * *
The curbs are back.
The melting snow this past week brought back the long lost curbs that we hadn’t seen in several weeks and just in time. The ice and hard packed snow had made a nice ramp up and over the curb and last week a driver pulled up in front the newspaper office and put their front tires right onto the middle of the sidewalk. I thought the car might be coming through the front door but sure enough they stopped, got out of the car and ran their errand like nobody had noticed.
The warmer weather and the rain has brought the curbs back into view. I’m glad the curbs are back.
* * * * * *
Hugh Smith usually looks on the bright side of things. Even at that, there is bound to be a thing or two that he sees that raise his ire. When I saw a copy of a letter he wrote recently, I knew that moment had arrived.
He wrote to the local cable company, to Twin Cities Public TV (TPT) as well as several other folks. His issue? Not having legislative broadcasts available in our part of Minnesota.
When TPT switched their coverage of the legislature from channel 17 to some other digital channel, the local cable company included it in the expanded digital package for which they charge a premium. That means it costs even more to follow the doings at the capitol in St. Paul. Ironically, in the Twin Cities, where most folks live within a few minutes of the capitol, most of that legislative coverage is fully accessible.
Out in Greater Minnesota, where it takes us a while to drive to the capitol, we are limited in our options. It seems like there should be better coverage in Greater Minnesota than any where else but instead it is worse. Now, you might ask who really watches any of that. Well if you work for the state like Hugh does, or if your town or school is getting money from the state (nearly all of them do) you should pay attention once in a while. There is plenty that affects our lives out here.
Good job on the letter, Hugh.
